Is the future of
chocolate really in jeopardy? Well as someone who uses chocolate as a
main ingredient in my treats, I have two answers: Possibly, and, I hope
not. So what's with the predictions, and is there any truth to them?
First off, it's important to know that the chocolate industry is huge. Over the last hundred years, it has transformed into an 80 billion a year global industry. However demand for chocolate is slowly overriding supply, and the future looks bleak. Or at least, it did In 2011, three years ago, it was estimated that chocolate would be in severe shortage, accompanying that would be a huge price hike.
Here we are, three years later. A lot of chocolate bars have reduced their size, while staying the same price. Price does seem to be increasing, however so far there is no evidence of the severe shortage that we heard about. Many predict that many producers of chocolate will offer either both, or one of the two: Premium and affordable kinds of chocolate. What caused this price hike?
Chocolate prices are highly unstable, and can be adversely affected by many things. Weather, insects, disease, even political problems in producing countries. In the 2000's, an oversupply of beans caused chocolate prices to drop to $714 a tonne*. However years later, in 2011, fears of cocoa disruption prevailed, and prices spiked to a 32 year high of $3,775 a tonne. A shortage of certified fair trade cocoa farmers can be attributed to this, as well as political instability in the Ivory Coast, where 40% of the worlds cocoa is produced.
As you can see, cocoa production is at somewhat of a standstill. While this can spell problems for those who use it in their businesses, chocolate is such a popular product, that it's not going anywhere anytime soon. While it may take a couple of years for the number of certified chocolate farmers and cocoa production levels to the number they used to be, it will eventually happen. No worries :)
*Metric unit of measurement. 1 tonne is equivalent to 1.10231131 short tons
First off, it's important to know that the chocolate industry is huge. Over the last hundred years, it has transformed into an 80 billion a year global industry. However demand for chocolate is slowly overriding supply, and the future looks bleak. Or at least, it did In 2011, three years ago, it was estimated that chocolate would be in severe shortage, accompanying that would be a huge price hike.
Here we are, three years later. A lot of chocolate bars have reduced their size, while staying the same price. Price does seem to be increasing, however so far there is no evidence of the severe shortage that we heard about. Many predict that many producers of chocolate will offer either both, or one of the two: Premium and affordable kinds of chocolate. What caused this price hike?
Chocolate prices are highly unstable, and can be adversely affected by many things. Weather, insects, disease, even political problems in producing countries. In the 2000's, an oversupply of beans caused chocolate prices to drop to $714 a tonne*. However years later, in 2011, fears of cocoa disruption prevailed, and prices spiked to a 32 year high of $3,775 a tonne. A shortage of certified fair trade cocoa farmers can be attributed to this, as well as political instability in the Ivory Coast, where 40% of the worlds cocoa is produced.
As you can see, cocoa production is at somewhat of a standstill. While this can spell problems for those who use it in their businesses, chocolate is such a popular product, that it's not going anywhere anytime soon. While it may take a couple of years for the number of certified chocolate farmers and cocoa production levels to the number they used to be, it will eventually happen. No worries :)
*Metric unit of measurement. 1 tonne is equivalent to 1.10231131 short tons
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